Forever Young on the Main Track at Belmont Park 091226 credit Dom Napolitano
The $1 million Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1) was already one of the most anticipated races of the season, but a series of scratches has completely changed the tactical picture for Friday’s 1 1/4-mile feature at the newly rebuilt Belmont Park.
Originally drawn with seven horses, the field is now down to just four following the withdrawals of Chunk of Gold (#3), Banishing (#5) and Render Judgment (#6). Render Judgment became the latest defection Friday morning as a veterinary scratch.
That leaves:
#1 Baeza – Junior Alvarado / Bill Mott
#2 Stars and Stripes – John Velazquez / Bill Mott
#4 Phileas Fogg – Kendrick Carmouche / Gustavo Rodriguez
#7 Forever Young – Ryusei Sakai / Yoshito Yahagi
And while the field has become smaller, the tactical intrigue may actually have increased.
The biggest change: Who goes after Phileas Fogg?
The scratches of Banishing and Chunk of Gold are particularly significant because both represented potential sources of early pressure.
Their absence leaves Phileas Fogg as the most obvious—and perhaps only—committed speed horse in the race.
That could be extremely important.
Coming off a dominant 10-length victory in the Suburban (G2), Phileas Fogg has already demonstrated his ability over a route of ground, and Kendrick Carmouche now has an opportunity to establish position without necessarily having to expend significant energy in the opening stages.
If Phileas Fogg is allowed to dictate comfortable fractions, the complexion of the Jockey Club Gold Cup could become much more complicated for the horses behind him.
The question for the other three jockeys becomes: How much freedom are they willing to give him?
Forever Young: The horse everyone has to beat
International superstar Forever Young remains the centerpiece of the race.
The reigning Japanese Horse of the Year and Eclipse Award-winning Champion Older Dirt Male enters Belmont following another remarkable international campaign. He has already proven himself against elite competition around the world and arrived in New York as the defending Breeders’ Cup Classic winner.
His preparation at Belmont has also been encouraging. Forever Young worked five furlongs Tuesday, with Ryusei Sakai reporting afterward that the horse handled the surface well and appeared comfortable over the new Belmont main track.
The scratches could work both ways for him.
On one hand, there is less traffic, fewer variables and fewer horses capable of attacking him during the race.
On the other, Forever Young could now find himself having to do some of the work himself.
From post seven—effectively the outside post in the reduced field—Sakai should have options. Rather than dropping too far behind a potentially slow pace, Forever Young could be positioned relatively close to Phileas Fogg.
That may be the key tactical decision of the entire race.
If Phileas Fogg goes to the front, don’t be surprised if Forever Young is sitting within striking distance rather than waiting at the rear of the field.
Baeza could be the main danger
If there is a horse capable of turning the Jockey Club Gold Cup into a real battle through the final quarter-mile, Baeza deserves considerable attention.
The Bill Mott trainee has competed at the highest level and brings a running style that could become dangerous if the leaders begin to engage each other approaching the far turn.
But there is one important variable: the start.
Baeza has experienced gate issues in his recent races, something that becomes even more important in a four-horse field. Losing several lengths at the break is very different when there are six or seven horses generating pace ahead of you than when Phileas Fogg may be controlling a compact field.
Junior Alvarado therefore needs Baeza to leave the gate cleanly enough to maintain contact.
If he does, Baeza could get an excellent stalking trip behind Phileas Fogg and Forever Young before attempting to make his move approaching the stretch.
Don’t overlook Stars and Stripes
The intriguing horse is Stars and Stripes, the second Bill Mott entrant.
His victory in the Birdstone Stakes at Saratoga showed that distance is unlikely to be his biggest concern. With John Velazquez aboard, he also gives Mott another tactical option.
Stars and Stripes doesn’t necessarily need to challenge for the early lead. Instead, Velazquez can allow the race to develop in front of him and try to turn the final three-eighths into a stamina test.
In a four-horse field, that makes him interesting.
If Forever Young and Baeza decide they cannot allow Phileas Fogg to escape and the race begins to accelerate earlier than expected, Stars and Stripes could be the horse waiting behind them.
How the race could unfold
The opening quarter-mile should tell us a great deal.
Phileas Fogg appears the most likely leader, with Carmouche attempting to establish control of the race.
The critical question is where Forever Young lands.
Sakai has little incentive to allow Phileas Fogg to establish an uncontested lead while Forever Young sits several lengths behind. A logical scenario has the Japanese champion sitting second or very close to the pace, forcing Phileas Fogg to begin running seriously somewhere around the far turn.
Baeza could sit immediately behind that pair, provided he breaks cleanly, while Stars and Stripes may initially occupy the final position.
From there, several scenarios emerge.
If Phileas Fogg is allowed to establish comfortable fractions, his chances improve considerably. A fresh front-runner turning for home after conserving energy is much more dangerous than his odds alone might suggest.
If Forever Young stays close and applies pressure before the quarter pole, the race becomes a test of class—and that is exactly where the Japanese champion has repeatedly excelled.
If those two engage earlier than expected, however, the race could set up beautifully for Baeza.
And if the first three begin attacking each other well before the stretch, Stars and Stripes becomes the potential late-running wildcard.
The Agentes 305 View
The scratches have arguably made Forever Young’s task simpler from a traffic and competition standpoint, but potentially more complicated tactically.
This is no longer a race where Sakai can simply watch several speed horses battle and decide when to unleash Forever Young.
Someone has to keep Phileas Fogg honest.
That responsibility may ultimately fall on the favorite.
Phileas Fogg controls the pace. Forever Young controls when the real race begins. Baeza may be the horse hoping they begin that race just a little too early.
For Forever Young, meanwhile, the Jockey Club Gold Cup represents much more than another Grade 1 opportunity. It is his first appearance in New York and his final major American test before attempting to defend his Breeders’ Cup Classic crown at Keeneland.
Four horses. Ten furlongs. One international superstar.
And with the scratches completely changing the pace scenario, the 2026 Jockey Club Gold Cup may be much more tactical than originally expected.
About The Author
